AI, War and Geopolitics
Lecture by Ioannis Pitas
Abstract: This lecture overviews the impact of AI on the defense industry, war and Geopolitics. Currently, big countries, like USA, China and Russia and smaller ones put more efforts in direct military spending, not only to boost their armed forces, but also their arms manufacturing capacity. The global military expenditure has passed the 2 trillion USD mark for the first time in 2022. Science and Technology, particularly AI play an important role in arms race.
Since Antiquity, Science and Technology helped all three military command levels (strategic operational and tactical command) to win wars. The next step is to use AI and Robotics to get military supremacy and fight a war without soldiers (and without casualties). Now this can come true, thanks to Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWs), e.g., drones, ground vehicles and marine vessels. LAWs weaknesses are also overviewed, and their sensitivity, e.g., to GNSS attacks. Another aspect of current wars is cyberwarfare. Intelligent AI-powered cyberattacks can identify infrastructure security loopholes and hit with devastating ferocity.
Intelligent warfare raises huge issues on war morals. Where is the glory in fighting such costly mechanized wars or cyberwars? Therefore, this lecture overviews the moral and legal issues to be dealt, when operating LAWs, particularly in autonomous military operations of deliberate targeting. Such issues and their deadly potentially uncontrolled future increase international awareness on a regulated use of LAWs at the level of United Nations.
Geopolitics refers to the study of international politics and relations, in the context of human and earth geography. Despite its huge internal market and big economy size, EU remains a geopolitical dwarf, with neither a unified foreign policy nor European armed forces nor excellent AI research record. Furthermore, in the past 30 years, USA consumed a good part of its geopolitical, and military supremacy in a rather unwise manner in ill-planned military interventions in the entire belt from Sahel to Afghanistan. As a result, USA shows signs of both economic and military slowdown. The biggest error of the US foreign policy was the miscalculation of China’s ability to become a global power really fast. It now threatens US scientific supremacy in various sectors, notably in AI technology and mobile communications.
As a result of these weaknesses of the Western world, it is quite evident that we are moving to a multipolar world power system. Unfortunately, quite a few of the emerging global power poles are autocratic regimes with a poor democratic record. This trend has intensified in recent years. As this global competition will only intensify, it is extremely important that all democratic countries cooperate in defending Democracy and countering authoritarianism. The technological front, particularly on AI technologies, is a prime one to be won, as scientific supremacy can ensure both economic and military might.